What can we expect over the next few years regarding newbuild sales and deliveries? Ralph Dazert from SuperYacht Times takes a closer look at how the newbuild section of the superyacht industry is set develop over the next coming years.
The superyacht industry has managed to rack up 137 newbuild sales throughout the year, and while we have entered the final months of 2018, we believe there is still more to come - especially from yards starting newbuilds on speculation in semi-series production. A year-end figure of approximately 160 newbuild sales is still achievable in our opinion. But for the next year, a lot depends on the continued strong performance of the US economy, a sustained upturn in commodity prices and the willingness of the newly rich from Asia to embrace superyacht ownership.
At the Monaco Yacht Show in September, the mood was positive, but we should proceed with some caution and not speak of a “boom”, as the numbers do not point in that direction. If anything, it looks more like the market is stabilising after a few difficult years. However, an average number of 150 newbuild sales per year until the end of 2020 is achievable in our opinion. Yards will have to continue to fight for every sale though, and pull out all the stops to convince customers from a group of prospective buyers that is changing in composition and becoming younger, more Asian and more female.
In terms of deliveries, we expect 2018 to match or slightly exceed the 2017 total of 147 yachts. At the time of writing, 124 yachts were delivered during 2018, with another 85 still slated for 2018 delivery. However, a significant part of those 85 yachts will be delayed to 2019. We have already counted 291 yachts slated for delivery in 2019 and 2020, excluding delayed newbuilds from 2018 and potential additional newbuild sales with deliveries in 2019 or 2020. We also see that yards are investing in new facilities and building yachts on speculation, so the supply of yachts will continue to grow in the next few years. This means that we can expect a couple of busy years regarding deliveries. 170 to 180 newbuild deliveries in 2019 and 2020 is not an unrealistic number to us.